Much of Minnesota will see freezing precipitation on Saturday transitioning to snow later in the day. A glaze of ice will coat untreated surfaces making roads and sidewalks slick.

“It’s going to be a wintry weekend in Minnesota but not in the way that you might think of a big winter storm,” says climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld.

Less than 3 inches of snow will fall in most parts of the state but the Arrowhead could see up to half a foot in some locations.

While January will end on a snowy note, the month stands out for the lack of below zero temperatures.

“Most years, we will see a low temperature of zero or lower in the Twin Cities several times during January and a couple dozen times during the entire winter,” says Blumenfeld. “We’re behind on both counts right now.”

Blumenfeld notes that the Twin Cities have failed to reach a zero or below reading in January on only two other occasions: in 1990 and 2006.

While this weekend’s wintry mix will not be memorable, a more potent storm system could impact the region around midweek this coming week.

Blumenfeld says it’s too early to know what to expect but strong winds and excessive snowfall are possible and the system “is definitely worth keeping an eye on.”

Most of Minnesota and Wisconsin will see snowfall amounts ranging from 3-6 inches with isolated areas of higher accumulations starting on Saturday and ending Sunday morning. Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld says this system will resemble a “gentle snow globe” and lacks the punch of other storms we’ve experienced during the current snow season.

Blumenfeld says the winter has thus far been on the warmer and snowier end of the climate spectrum.

“Somewhat oddly, we’ve not had much of a winter although we’ve managed to have a decent amount of snow,” says Blumenfeld.

“Through January 15th, Twin Cities total snowfall is ranking 15th out of 100 and some for most snowfall to date for the season,” says Blumenfeld, “and Duluth is similarly high.”

While temperatures will dip this weekend, once the storm system exits the region more mild weather will return, according to Blumenfeld.

A winter storm is bearing down on much of the state bringing the potential for heavy snow and strong winds, prompting the National Weather Service to issue a variety of watches, warnings and advisories.

But this system is not a typical winter storm, says climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld, who calls it “kind of an oddball in a lot of ways.”

“It’s just not going to pack that sort of cold punch that that you normally get with a major winter storm in this region, especially a major winter storm in this region in the middle of winter,” say Blumenfeld.

The above average temperatures during the first half of January is the major reason why this storm is so unique, according to Blumenfeld.

“We’re running routinely 10 to 15 degrees above normal for the daily average temperature,” says Blumenfeld, who notes that the absence of a strong cold front accompanying this system is quite unusual for this time of the year.

Nevertheless, the storm will make travel difficult if not impossible in parts of the state and snowfalls will generally range from 3-5 inches over a wide area of the southern two-thirds of Minnesota with isolated pockets of 6 inches up to a foot.

Blumenfeld says the average location in Minnesota will experience over 24 hours of intermittent precipitation until the system slowly dies out on Friday.

There are signs that another storm could impact the region in the middle of next week.

There’s a winter storm on the way that will impact much of Minnesota this afternoon into early Wednesday, but it pales in comparison to last week’s blizzard that brought strong winds, plunging temperatures and heavy snow over much of the state.

Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld says today’s storm will drop 3-5 inches of snow in many places and will make travel hazardous, but he expects rapid improvement by tomorrow morning.

While the coming storm will not make the top five weather events list for 2020, Blumenfeld says last week’s blizzard “was one of the signature weather events of the year.”

Blumenfeld notes that it’s unusual to have strong winds simultaneously occurring with heavy snow, and that combination made last week’s blizzard memorable.

“I think around 70 counties were covered by blizzard warnings at one time which is probably a record for Minnesota,” says Blumenfeld.

The Twin Cities were included in the blizzard warnings which has only happened 3 times since the early 1980s, according to Blumenfeld.

In this episode, Blumenfeld and co-host Jim du Bois take an in-depth look at last week’s blizzard and discuss the top 5 weather events of 2020.

A winter storm is bearing down on much of Minnesota bringing heavy snow, plunging temperatures and strong, gusty winds.

“We’re going to have a pretty fierce cold front come through on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, and then temperatures are going to fall by 40 to 45 degrees,” says climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld.

The heaviest snowfall is expected to impact areas to the north and west of the Twin Cities which is straddling the line between lighter and heavier snow total amounts. 30-35 mile per hour sustained winds are expected in open areas with gusts as high as 50 miles per hour, according to Blumenfeld, who cautions that parts of the state will experience whiteout conditions.

Total snow accumulations of several inches to the low double digits are possible in some areas of Minnesota.

Blumenfeld and co-host Jim du Bois also discuss the impact of warmer global temperatures on Minnesota’s winters, ice safety tips and an opportunity to vote for the top 5 weather events of 2020.

November’s mild weather is extending into early December, and the prospects for a white Christmas are looking increasingly grim for some Minnesotans. “We just don’t have enough cold air in place,” says climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld. But there is a ray of hope as Blumenfeld says there are a couple of systems on the horizon that could bring precipitation including one coming later this week. “There’s enough of a sign that at least one of these storms will produce some snow that I’d say some parts of Minnesota, half of the state or so, should have a white Christmas,” according to Blumenfeld.

Historically, there is about a 75-80 percent chance of a white Christmas in the Twin Cities. Blumenfeld cautions that the technical definition of a white Christmas, which is one inch of snow at an official measuring station, may not match our personal expectations or reflect the amount of snow in our neighborhoods. “Actually, in the last several years there’s been a couple of times where we kind of got saved by the bell, but I don’t think that’s what Bing Crosby meant,” says Blumenfeld.

Blumenfeld and his co-host Jim du Bois also discuss a recent nationwide study by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) that assesses the risk of natural disasters including severe storms on a county-by-county basis and look back at the record-setting temperatures in November.

We suffered through an unseasonably cold last half of October here in Minnesota, so the big early November warm-up was a welcome relief. “We just completed the warmest six day stretch during any November in recorded history,” says climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld. “We did not set an all-time high temperature record for the state for any November day; that one is still secure. But we did set just about every other type of (temperature) record that there is. We had a record number of days at or above 70 degrees with International Falls and Duluth at three, St. Cloud with four, the Twin Cities with five, and I believe Rochester clocked in with six,” says Blumenfeld. This past Saturday, the daily low temperature in the Twin Cities was 60 degrees which Blumenfeld says was the warmest overnight minimum temperature on record. But there is a change coming this week in the form of rain, colder temperatures and snow. Blumenfeld calls it “a mini-winter storm” but says models are indicating a mid-month return to above normal temperatures.

Blumenfeld and co-host Jim du Bois also discuss why the period from November 6th-12th has historically produced some of the strongest fall storms in Minnesota history including the Armistice Day Blizzard in 1940 and strong gales that sank the freighter Edmund Fitzgerald on Lake Superior in 1975. “It’s just a very active time because we’re in transition from fall to winter, the jet stream is very strong, you’ve got residual warm air from summer, and you’ve got kind of invading cold air from winter,” says Blumenfeld. “These ingredients align and you can get a very powerful weather system.”

After suffering through the second coldest last half of October on record, we are about to be rewarded with a week of unseasonably warm temperatures, says climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld. “There are going to be parts of Minnesota on Friday morning and Saturday morning where the temperatures might not fall below 50, which is kind of mind-boggling for November,” says Blumenfeld. “If you combine that with the potential for highs above 70, you’re looking at a daily average temperature that could be around 60. That’s pretty sneaky for November, so we’ll have to keep an eye out to see if we’re as warm or as anomalously warm as we had just been anomalously cold because that would be quite a swing."

Blumenfeld says the Twin Cities’ weather on Election Day has varied widely over the years. “We’ve had everything from rain and thunderstorms to beautiful weather, and we’ve also had snow either on the ground or falling,” says Blumenfeld, who notes that a record high of 71 was set on Election Day in 2008, and the record low for the day is 9. The average high temperature for the Twin Cities on Election Day is 49.

Blumenfeld and co-host Jim du Bois also preview the upcoming episode which will focus on historical weather events that have taken place between November 9th and 12th including the Armistice Day Blizzard of 1940 and the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald in 1975. “I can only say as someone who’s looked at all the charts and who studies the history of the weather that there’s something about November 11th in particular that really has put an imprint on weather history,” says Blumenfeld.

Last week, much of Minnesota saw record snowfalls for this early in the season followed by unseasonably cold temperatures, but the rest of October and early November should bring more fall-like weather. A trifecta of storms swept the state during the past week, starting with a record-breaking snow event on October 20th. “The Twin Cities had just shy of 8 inches,” says climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld. “I think we came in with an official tally of 7.9 inches for that storm. In parts of the south metro, some of the volunteers, those CoCoRaHS observers, had over 8” and (in some areas) even over 9.” A second storm impacted parts of the state on October 22nd followed by more snow over this past weekend. “The entire state has now seen accumulating snow,” says Blumenfeld. “This would be one of the earliest times on record that we’ve done that.” Temperatures plunged as well. “Some of our high temperatures were among the lowest that we have on record for October,” says Blumenfeld. “We didn’t shatter any records, but we came within striking distance.”

Blumenfeld says the good news is that the early snow and cold doesn’t necessarily mean that we’ll have a brutal winter. “As far as we can tell when we look at the Octobers and Novembers that have been cold and snowy, we don’t really see any connection to the rest of winter.” A case in point, says Blumenfeld, is the winter of 1991-92 which was preceded by the infamous Halloween blizzard. That was a El Nino winter, and the state registered below-normal snowfall despite suffering through the Halloween event and another brutal storm during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

Blumenfeld and co-host Jim du Bois also discuss the relationship between snow cover and temperature and a new climate study that looks at the impact even slightly warming global temperatures can have on public health and agriculture.

Much of Minnesota will see 3-5 inches, and possibly more, of heavy, wet snow tomorrow spreading from west to east. “Most places will see it snow for anywhere from maybe 5-10 hours,” says climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld in a special edition of Way Over Our Heads. A slushy mix of rain and snow in some areas will slicken up roads and sidewalks. And while the snow will not be as memorable as the Halloween blizzard of 1991, Blumenfeld says it could be a record-breaker in one sense since the Twin Cities has never recorded a 3” snowfall before October 29th. This is one of a trifecta of storm systems that will impact the region this week with the next one coming on Thursday and another expected over the weekend.

Accumulating snow is on tap for parts of Minnesota this weekend especially on grassy areas. Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld says there will be a mix of rain and wet snow on Friday night and Saturday. “In southern and central Minnesota, in the Twin Cities area for example, it’s going to probably rain a little bit in the early morning and maybe there’ll be a flake or two of snow mixed in”, says Blumenfeld, “and then it might become a pretty nice Saturday. It’s off to the north when you look at Hinckley and Brainerd and up to Duluth where that same area of precipitation in the morning has a better likelihood of snow rather than rain.” Blumenfeld doesn’t expect a significant snow event but says parts of northern Minnesota could see a few inches. Blumenfeld says we’re entering an active weather pattern with colder than normal temperatures and chances of snow during the next 10 days. Blumenfeld and Jim du Bois also discuss NOAA’s recently released winter outlook and some much needed rain that fell in most of the state earlier this week.

While much of Sunday will be unseasonably warm, expect showers and thunderstorms to develop in western Minnesota by mid-afternoon and rapidly spread eastward through the evening hours. Some of the thunderstorms could produce damaging winds and there’s a small chance of an isolated tornado. “In terms of the kind of cold front-driven summer style thunderstorms, I think what we’re looking at on Sunday night might be the last of the season,” says climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld. “The most likely outcome is that none of the thunderstorms do damage of any sort but you get some lightning, some thunder, some heavy rains and maybe some gusty winds,” says Blumenfeld, “but there is a chance that these storms could knock down a few trees and a few of them could get pretty energetic.” Once the showers and thunderstorms move through, expect a big drop in temperatures and a colder weather pattern for the week ahead. Some models are even suggesting a snow event over the coming weekend. Also, a look at an unusually active hurricane season and why some of us caught a whiff of manure in the air recently.

High Temperatures in the Twin Cities will rebound into the 70s starting today and 80 degree readings are not out of the question later in the week for southern Minnesota. All in all, some great fall weather is on tap for most of the state. “There’s a lot of signs that October is going to be a fantastic month,” says climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld. And although many of us may not realize it, this past summer was one of the warmest on record, according to Blumenfeld. “There really weren’t any blockbuster events that people are going to remember from the summer in terms of warmth,” says Blumenfeld. “It wasn’t particularly hot. We didn’t have an unusual number of days above 90 or nights even above 70 degrees. What we really lacked, though, once we got out of June, were those really cool nights.” Blumenfeld says September was cooler and drier throughout the state and lacked the big rainfall events that have happened during the month in recent years. Also, a look at the impact wildfires in the west had on our weather this past month and why the September cold snap helped kick fall colors into high gear.

Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will prevail for much of this week with the best chance of precipitation coming on Friday night and Saturday. Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld says precipitation has lagged statewide so far this month. “It’s not an urgent drought yet,” says Blumenfeld, “and the reason is because there’s not as much sunlight, it’s not as hot, we’re not evaporating the water that’s in the system and we’re not losing it through evaporation and evapotranspiration. And so, you can withstand a September dry spell a little longer than in July before you get into urgent drought conditions.” Despite the pleasant temperatures this week, tomorrow is the Autumnal Equinox and seasonal change is underway, says Blumenfeld. “The sunlight gets weaker. The days get shorter. Those forces conspire to (eventually) bring us winter.”

Minnesota got an early taste of fall last week as unseasonably cold weather brought frost to parts of the state. Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld says some of the temperatures broke records. “The Twin Cities area had two back-to-back record low maximum temperatures; basically, the high temperature of the day was as low as it had ever been on record two days in a row.” Blumenfeld says the week ahead looks glorious with “a good, strong return to warm, almost hot conditions” especially on Tuesday. Also, a look at the unprecedented wildfires in California, Washington state and Oregon and a record number of simultaneous tropical storms.

There’s a taste of fall in the air, but expect some potentially severe thunderstorms in parts of southern Minnesota late Saturday into early Sunday bringing hail and damaging winds. Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld says the weather pattern is set to dramatically shift due to “a powerful cold front that is going to swing through basically covering the whole state falling in from the northwest first late Saturday and then crossing the rest of the state either Sunday or at least by Sunday evening in southeast Minnesota. And once that happens, it’s like switching seasons.” Blumenfeld says below normal temperatures are in store for the coming week, and frost in northern Minnesota can’t be ruled out. But don’t give up on summer as weather models are indicating a warmup coming by mid-month. Also in this episode, a look back at meteorological summer (June-August) and how weather conditions can sometimes impact health.

The storms that impacted parts of Minnesota last night and early this morning are setting up the conditions that may spark more severe weather later this afternoon and evening. “And when that outbreak begins,” says Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld, “it’s probably going to be driven by where the overnight storms kind of terminated.” Blumenfeld says he believes the next round of storms will likely originate “within 75 miles of the Twin Cities and then move eastward to southeastward from there, possibly across the Twin Cities.” The biggest threat from these storms, according to Blumenfeld, will be heavy rain and large hail but there’s also some risk of damaging winds and tornadoes. The heat and humidity will continue through the week, and Blumenfeld says two tropical weather systems may “throw some extra moisture our way later this week,” possibly setting the stage for heavy rains. Also in this episode, a recap of the severe weather event of August 14th-15th that spawned numerous tornadoes, a look at why we’ve seen such vivid lightning displays this summer, and how the dwindling hours of daylight help drive the transition from summer to fall weather conditions.

There’s an enhanced risk of severe weather in parts of Minnesota from this afternoon through Friday night. Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld and Jim du Bois discuss the arrival of a potent storm system that may bring damaging winds, hail and heavy rains to northwestern Minnesota tonight. Tomorrow, the threat expands to the south and east, including the Twin Cities, bringing with it a better chance for tornadoes and wind-driven hail. “We’re going into a seasonal transition, like it or not, and the kind of doldrums of summer are going to be exchanging for the more active and faster moving air patterns that you get in the fall”, says Blumenfeld. After the storms pass, we’ll get a taste of fall for the next several days with low temperatures in northern Minnesota falling into the 40s. Also in this episode, Blumenfeld looks back on this past weekend’s storms that struck the Twin Cities late Sunday night into the early morning hours on Monday. “They were all prolific lightning and thunder producers',” says Blumenfeld, and widespread large hail damaged vehicles, roofs and siding in parts of Minnesota.

If you’ve enjoyed the past few glorious days of mild temperatures and low humidities, prepare for a change starting today and continuing through Sunday as much of Minnesota is under the threat of severe weather. Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld and Jim du Bois discuss the weather pattern that will bring higher dew points and the possibility of large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes. Blumenfeld says that “a pretty potent batch of thunderstorms” will develop in the northern two-thirds of Minnesota later this afternoon and evening. The storms “could be quite intense” according to Blumenfeld and will build southward towards the Twin Cities and possibly beyond. Blumenfeld says “Saturday looks a little calmer but by Saturday night we’ve got risks for thunderstorms again, and Sunday looks quite active also” with possible severe thunderstorms and heavy rain. Also, a look at the “mega rains” of July 25-26 and the possible return of hot weather towards mid-August.

During the evening of July 23rd, 1987 and continuing into the early morning hours of the 24th, more than 10” of rain fell at the Twin Cities International Airport. The so-called “Superstorm” kicked off with a destructive tornado in Maple Grove and Brooklyn Park and morphed into a high-intensity precipitation event that caused massive flash flooding. Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld and Jim du Bois recall the “Superstorm” and the weather conditions that preceded it. Blumenfeld says “the ingredients were not tremendously different from what we’re looking at on Saturday,” but he cautions that a similar storm cannot be predicted, particularly for one particular place, “unless a lot of things come together.” In any event, look for dangerous heat today and Saturday as well as the possibility of severe weather and very heavy rains. Also, we may break what Blumenfeld calls “a nerdy record” if a meteorological value called precipitable water (PWAT) reaches a historic high tomorrow.