Heavy Rains and Potentially Severe Weather On Tap for Parts of Minnesota
SPEAKERS
Jim du Bois, Kenny Blumenfeld
Jim du Bois 00:00
It's a glass of water in the middle of a desert. Drink up, Minnesota. This is Way Over Our Heads. It's a weather and climate podcast. I'm Jim du Bois. Kenny Blumenfeld's a climatologist. Kenny, you had a little time away from the office. How was that?
Kenny Blumenfeld 00:16
It's always good to get out, you know, especially after the pandemic. Get out, go somewhere else, see a different set of walls. So, we went, we went up to northwest Wisconsin. Spent a few days visiting friends and going to supper clubs, which is one thing Wisconsin does really well.
Jim du Bois 00:39
Yes, they do.
Kenny Blumenfeld 00:40
Those kind of old supper clubs with the vintage signs. So we were in the Rice Lake area. It's good. How are you, Jim?
Jim du Bois 00:47
You know, Kenny, I am doing well. I'm looking forward again with fingers crossed, because we are used to disappointment this spring and summer. But it sounds like you know, you're kind of in the middle of the desert, you see the mirage of that water that looks so tempting. And then you, you round the little rise in the desert, and it disappears. So...
Kenny Blumenfeld 01:10
Oh, yeah, I see it. I see it.
Jim du Bois 01:12
I'm skeptical.
Kenny Blumenfeld 01:14
I understand your, your skepticism is totally justified. It's a really good metaphor, honestly, because, say we've been on a fairly long walk already, and we ran out of water several weeks ago. We're just, we're just thirsty. Or let's just say we ran out of water miles and miles ago. And we've got a long way to walk yet. There's really no sign, no indication, you know, that we have found the oasis. However, there appears to be sitting on a table, it's getting closer than the horizon. Now, there appears to be a fairly large glass of water. Now, if we go and find it, we are certainly not going to thoroughly hydrate ourselves such that we are completely safe for the rest of our journey through this desert. But you gotta admit, can't hurt, right?
Jim du Bois 02:15
Oh, you bet. Absolutely. So Kenny, are we seeing a change on the horizon here with what seems to be looming for perhaps later today? This is Tuesday, July 13. And tomorrow, Wednesday, July 14.
Kenny Blumenfeld 02:31
Not a change on the horizon. No, I think that, I think the desert with a table and a glass of water on the table works quite well here.
Jim du Bois 02:39
Okay.
Kenny Blumenfeld 02:40
It's still the desert. So, what Jim's referring to for our very patient listeners who've been trying to figure out what the heck is going on with these metaphors. We have a, you know, a nice, warm airmass. It's Tuesday, July 13. It's gonna get a little toasty, and there's a cold front dropping in through Minnesota. It's gonna fire off some scattered, maybe even just isolated thunderstorms. It kind of depends on how much of that smoke in the sky prevents the sunlight from really heating things up near the ground. So, today is kind of act one. Very isolated to scattered thunderstorms with some, you know, maybe some heavy rains, some hail, some gusty winds. Most people will not get anything, but those who do will be lucky, you might even get, you know, an inch of rain out of these storms. But the main event is really from Wednesday morning out in western and southwestern Minnesota into Wednesday evening in parts of eastern and southeastern Minnesota. There's a lot of uncertainty, but it's a fairly potent complex of thunderstorms. It's going to come out of South Dakota. And the question is, is it going to just March eastward out of South Dakota or maybe even dive southeastward into Iowa? Or is it going to take on a little bit of a spin and develop into its own little low pressure area? And it's that scenario that has forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center and locally, and even it has me, most kind of curious, concerned and excited because that kind of situation where thunderstorms breed their own little low pressure area, that can lead to more intense thunderstorms, often with heavy rain and even severe weather. And, you know, as we're recording this now, anyway, the southeastern third or so of Minnesota is included in an enhanced risk for severe weather on Wednesday. And there's also a slight risk for excessive rainfall over pretty much the same area. The best risk really is just south and east of the Twin Cities but it's close enough that we're kind of all, everyone from say St. Cloud on south and east is in play, but again, the greatest risk would be in my mind from somewhere around Owatonna, Northfield, maybe Albert Lea, you know, kind of then eastward through the remainder of southeastern Minnesota. So, it looks like a setup where you could have a northern swath of thunderstorms and just heavy rain, maybe no severe weather, where you see one to two or even three inches in a fairly narrow band. And then another area where the big thunderstorms line up in the afternoon, also producing heavy rain, possibly even isolated amounts above three inches. This is not going to be the kind of thing that drenches the whole state, but a fairly good swath of a half an inch to an inch of precipitation looks, looks likely over the southern third of Minnesota, and there is that severe weather risk where we could see some really strong winds, especially if that little low pressure system forms, Jim. But then, because you asked what's on the horizon, and I think the horizon is being multiple days away.
Jim du Bois 05:47
Yes.
Kenny Blumenfeld 05:47
And this system for tomorrow is now well over the horizon and is approaching us. And I think it's very likely to produce thunderstorms and even heavy thunderstorms in southern Minnesota. It's just that after that I don't see much. And that's why I think I wouldn't call it a change, I would call it a, you know, a nice, potentially healthy distraction for us.
Jim du Bois 06:10
Well, last time, Kenny, you and I spoke, we asked whether or not the rains that had been in the forecast would make a dent in the drought. Did they?
Kenny Blumenfeld 06:20
Probably in parts of southeastern Minnesota, there was enough rain and in southwestern Minnesota, there has been enough rain to at least stall, the progression of the drought. The drought has basically been advancing, expanding and intensifying over most of Minnesota for the last few to several weeks now. And there was enough precipitation last week in parts of western, southwestern and southern Minnesota, that a minority of the state, but you know, maybe equivalent to 10,000 square miles, at least, was able to hold the drought off from you know, further what we call degradation. However, nobody really, nobody came out of the drought. And a lot of areas hardly got any rainfall and in parts in northwestern Minnesota, it's not only been dry, but it's remained fairly hot. You know, this is a pattern where northern Minnesota is frequently hotter than southern Minnesota, and especially in the, in the northwestern part of the state. So, things have kind of deteriorated in that area. And so no, we didn't we didn't make the kind of progress, that was a real heartbreaker. I think I had mentioned it was consequential. And for people who don't know what I meant by that, I meant, you know, if we had gotten the rain that at the time was advertised by most if not all of the models was still a few days away, we would have had a fairly wide scale improvement in the drought conditions. It wouldn't have, it wouldn't have gotten us out. But I think it would have it would have stalled the, the drought progression and maybe even bumped us up a category in some places. And instead, the heavy precipitation went into Iowa and Missouri where they actually don't really need it the way we need it. And then we only had that scattered stuff in Minnesota. So no, it didn't, it didn't turn out, it didn't turn out the way we hoped. And therefore that left us kind of right where we were, which is not good when you move into the middle part of July, and you are approaching the peak heating, you know, the peak hot weather season. And so that's, that's one of the things we see off on the horizon is a potential anyway, for some more intense heat as we get into next week. I think we can cover that in another podcast because it's still several days away before the really intense heat would be building into Minnesota, maybe even a week away. But it, we're seeing hints, Jim, well, you'll be happy because you love it hot...
Jim du Bois 08:48
I do.
Kenny Blumenfeld 08:48
...but we're seeing hints from some of the models actually show the dreaded heat dome, which we will have to define if we, if it actually moves in, moving over at least North Dakota and putting parts of Minnesota close enough to the center of the ridge to have some really intense heating. So, we will have to keep an eye on that. But it's too far away to, to, you know, at this point to bank on it. Enough could change. Maybe we'll, maybe we'll stay on the edge of it.
Jim du Bois 09:19
Well, Kenny, we've had a pretty quiet severe weather season so far in Minnesota this year. And actually, I think that's been the case pretty much nationwide. But tomorrow, July 14, we actually, according to the Storm Prediction Center, have an enhanced risk of severe weather. Are we looking at what could be, and maybe we should just say compared to what we haven't had so far, a rather substantial severe weather outbreak tomorrow?
Kenny Blumenfeld 09:46
Yeah, I mean, I, you know, I guess it's important for listeners to know that there's different risk categories, and enhanced does connote a fairly, you know, what I would think of as a fairly sizable risk of severe weather. Above it, you do have moderate risk and high risk. And I think we've talked with, on the podcast about kind of the silliness of some of these category descriptions. Because a high risk of severe weather is like, you know, kind of a lights out event is anticipated, but a moderate risk, which sounds kind of subdued, right? Like moderate...
Jim du Bois 10:18
Yes.
Kenny Blumenfeld 10:18
...is actually, you know, those are also tied with generally really substantial severe weather outbreaks and even the enhanced risk, which in my mind sounds more dire than moderate but is really meant to connote kind of a slightly lower level of risk, even those are associated with pretty significant severe weather outbreaks sometimes. And then you have the more common slight risk and marginal risks. So, we're in an enhanced risk, but listeners should probably know that that's as of this recording. That risk level has the potential to be updated kind of five times between when we're recording and when the storms are actually on top of our listenership. And so, we could end up in a higher risk of severe weather in some areas. It could actually be a moderate risk. I wouldn't be shocked if a small area went into a moderate risk. And we could have other areas downgraded. To answer your general question, though, yeah, I think that this, this has more potential than we have seen all year. You have to go back to early March...March! It was March 10...
Jim du Bois 11:23
Wow...
Kenny Blumenfeld 11:24
...and we had, we had a hailstorm, and we had a Tornado Watch that covered much of Minnesota. I don't know if we've been in a tornado watch since then. I'm sure I could find out. But in any case, it's been a very quiet severe weather season here. There's been much more activity in Wisconsin, but it's generally been quiet there, too. It's just been more active in Wisconsin than Minnesota. Yeah, I mean, I would say that, given the chance of this kind of low pressure type system forming from the thunderstorms and then being supported by pretty strong winds aloft. It's not going to be a powder keg of mugginess tomorrow. I don't think you'll really be able to feel it, it's just that there's going to be a lot of energy in the atmosphere, especially if that low pressure area forms. And I definitely could see, I could see a pretty intense severe weather outbreak. You know, when we talk about severe weather, Jim, of course, we're, we're talking about something that generally affects a very small proportion or small percentage of a given area. So, you wouldn't expect everyone listening to this to take damage. You would expect, you know, a small fraction of a percent of, of Minnesota maybe to have some wind damage. But the chances of strong winds and even some tornadoes tomorrow are noteworthy. So yeah, this could be, this could be so far anyway, the event of the summer.
Jim du Bois 12:52
Well, Kenny, in terms of timing, again, this is Tuesday, the 13th of July, when can we start seeing some rain...thunderstorm activity today?
Kenny Blumenfeld 13:02
So for Tuesday, anytime, after about four o'clock and really into and even through the evening, I think there could be these kind of isolated to maybe scattered thunderstorms. The mechanism, there's kind of two pieces, we're going on here, one, we have a fairly weak cold front moving through, and there's really not that much instability associated with it. So however hot we get today, that's kind of the most energy that it'll be able to work with. But then as the sun is setting and the temperatures are starting to drop, the dewpoints, and the moisture actually will be on the increase, and that could prolong that window of activity till after, you know, after it turns dark. Again, I would expect isolated thunderstorms, some people are gonna have a real nice view off to the east as these storms move away, they might produce some nice lightning in otherwise clear skies. So, you'll see the, you'll see the thunderstorm clouds off to the east and lightning illuminating the back of it. So that's this afternoon and evening, I'd say four o'clock, to maybe eight...nine...ten o'clock, isolated coverage but potentially kind of surprisingly strong thunderstorms if you're not, if you're not ready for them. And then tomorrow, on Wednesday, the timing appears to be, you know, the thunderstorm complex comes out of South Dakota in the morning, say between seven and 10 am and moves into western and southwestern Minnesota, and there's going to be multiple bands have precipitation around this associated with it. Now some of those, even as you get into late morning and early afternoon, we could be looking at severe weather with those. But the main risk window appears to be 3pm to about 8pm in Minnesota. That's where, if we get enough instability, and if the orientation of that system is just so, we could see not just heavy rain of, you know, up to two, three inches in some places, but also severe weather including tornadoes and very strong winds, kind of hurricane force winds in some of the strongest parts of the storms. And then, I think if you happen to be in Wisconsin, the risk continues later into the evening and even into the overnight hours, I have to say that the overall risk appears to be centered in kind of the Eau Claire down to Black River Falls area. So, I think the risk is a little higher there for, you know, kind of a large complex of thunderstorms moving through, but it sort of begins here in Minnesota. And so even in the Twin Cities, we could be looking at severe weather sometime Wednesday afternoon after three or four o'clock.
Jim du Bois 15:43
So, keep an eye on the sky and fingers crossed that we get some much needed rain. And then Kenny, the next time you and I get together, we can talk about the much discussed heat dome, and whether or not it will make an appearance here in Minnesota.
Kenny Blumenfeld 15:58
Right. I mean, that's, I think we can define the heat dome, talk about why it's called that and why it's sort of a good term and maybe a confusing one. It's kind of like the summer version of that polar vortex, right? There's there's some true scientific legitimacy to the name and to how we talk about it. But there's also obviously some confusion. Every time it's hot, doesn't mean that there's a heat dome. And every time it's cold, it doesn't mean you have a polar vortex. But yeah, so we could talk about that. And because at least one of the, one of the global climate or weather models is actually suggesting that it'll be moving into our neighborhood, we can look at what that would mean for our forecast and for our weather. But I know that Jim du Bois who, ladies and gentlemen and others, likes at hot would really appreciate it in ways that maybe other people don't.
Jim du Bois 16:50
Well, this is true, although I would like to see it tampered with some rain, that's for sure.
Kenny Blumenfeld 16:55
Yeah. Well, hopefully you get a big drink of that glass of water. I mean...
Jim du Bois 16:59
Yes.
Kenny Blumenfeld 16:59
...I won't be, I think that many listeners will have two to three inches of rain on Wednesday. It's just the question is exactly where is that going to line up? It could be fairly close to or even over the Twin Cities, then it could be in multiple parts of Minnesota, but it's not going to pull us out of the drought. It's just a nice drink of water.
Jim du Bois 17:21
Well, make sure, everyone, that you stay tuned to the skies, watch what's happening. Go to your local news source. Stay on top of the weather. And Kenny, we'll look forward to chatting with you later.
Kenny Blumenfeld 17:33
Yeah, we'll talk maybe later this week or over the weekend. Thanks, Jim.
Jim du Bois 17:37
This is Way Over Our Heads. It's weather and climate podcast. I'm Jim du Bois. Kenny Blumenfeld's climatologist. We'll catch you next time.